Leading Intelligence Analysis: Lessons From The Cia'S Analyti

Description: Written by an experienced professional who has led Navy Intelligence and CIA analysts in high-stakes situations, Leading Intelligence Analysis: Lessons from the CIA's Analytic Front Lines introduces the fundamental managerial skills and practical tools needed to lead analysis projects conducted by individuals and teams. Author Bruce Pease provides insights into key questions such as What kind of environment draws out a team's best work? What brings out their creativity? When does pressure bring out their best insights? When does pressure sap their intellectual energy? and What kind of team builds new knowledge rather than engaging in group-think? This book draws on the author's perspective from decades of leading intelligence analysts on critical issues, including war in the Middle East, terrorism after 9/11, and nuclear threats.

Review: "Bruce Pease is one of the finest leaders and analysts to ever serve at the Central Intelligence Agency. Few had his ability to cut through complicated issues and provide senior leaders with wisdom. No matter what business you are in, Bruce brings clarity and balance to help get the most out of your forecasters, inundated with data in this digital age. The results will be game changing." -- George Tenet "A very thoughtful book by a very thoughtful and respected professional. But this book goes way beyond thoughtful. It is exciting - the topics are hard to resist. And it is practical, putting powerful ideas into context. The lessons carry beyond intelligence analysis - they hit home for corporate leaders struggling to make forecasts despite ambiguity, complexity and deception." -- Gary Klein, Ph.D. "While Director of CIA, I sometimes described the analytic workforce there as resembling a tenured college faculty as I worked to preserve the excellence and independence of thought so essential to success (in either body) while harnessing those energies to a common, disciplined enterprise. Bruce Pease was my guide and counselor for that effort and now Bruce has captured his advice and wisdom in Leading Intelligence Analysis, a must read for any senior in or out of government who leads-or depends on-analysis." -- Michael V. Hayden "Bruce Pease has written a much needed book on a long ignored topic: how does one lead analysts? Most analysis is, at some level a group activity, whether in government or the private sector. Much has been written about good vs. bad analysis and how to train analysts, but Pease, himself a veteran senior CIA analyst and manger, focuses on what the managers and leaders of these analysts need to know and should be thinking about. Leadership matters in analysis as in all other endeavors and Pease offers invaluable guidance on how best to do this. This book is a must for anyone in a leadership role in an analytic enterprise." -- Mark M. Lowenthal, PhD.

Contents: Foreword Acknowledgments About the Author Chapter 1: Leading Analysis is Different from Doing AnalysisThe Leader of Analysis or the UberanalystWhich Substantive Analyst Responsibilities Carry Over?No Lazy ThinkingSetting Standards for the First TimeAnalyze Everything Chapter 2: Understanding AnalystsSome Classic TrapsTen Things Analysts Hate Chapter 3: Shaping the EnvironmentNurturing Trust is Job 1Taking the PulseSeven Critical BalancesStress in the Environment Chapter 4: Choosing the Best Approach and TechniquesEvolving Approaches: Three ParadigmsPicking your paradigmBlending ApproachesThe Expanding Menu of Analytic TechniquesKeep Your Eye Out for New Choices Chapter 5: Nurturing the New Idea: Creativity, Insight, and Innovation in AnalysisCreative Analysis?Stifling Creativity and Innovation in AnalysisAnd What of Insight?Promoting Creativity, Innovation, and Insight Chapter 6: Asking the Right QuestionToxic QuestioningThe Right QuestionThe Wrong Question Chapter 7: The Hardest Question: What Is Going to Happen? Prediction and Warning in AnalysisAnalyzing PredictabilityWhen History PivotsHumility, an Open Mind, and Practice RequiredPrediction is Always a GamblePrediction is the Leader's ResponsibilityWhat's the Worst that Could Happen? Leading WarningWhat Is Reasonable in an Unreasonable World? Chapter 8: Ethics in AnalysisWhat am I doing in this business?Leading a Dialogue on ValuesClimbing Down off the Analyst's High HorseDriving CollectionResisting PoliticizationAre We Responsible for Consequences?Impact of Covert ActionIn Closing Chapter 9: Analysis as a BusinessThe Business Part of the BusinessEnsuring Brand Loyalty (Getting Your Customers Hooked on Your Service)Prioritize Your CustomersTend Your Organization's Reputation with the Front OfficeAlign Your EnterpriseBusiness Is Too Good-I'm Swamped!Change is RealityIt Doesn't Take an MBA Chapter 10: The Tools of Twenty-First-Century AnalysisJudging Tools For AnalysisFirst- and Second-Level IT Tools to Help All AnalystsThird-level Tools: Big Data, Data Science, and Predictive AnalyticsTwo Keys: Volume and RepetitionThe Dreaded-but Inevitable-Black BoxThe Analyst Is Not About to be Replaced Chapter 11: Analysis at the Speed of InformationGet Your Mind Right and TheirsBuild an Information StrategyCan we analyze faster?Nurture Your Inner Opportunist Afterword Bibliography Index



Author Biography: Bruce E. Pease is a consultant on national security issues and the application of artificial intelligence; and he teaches leadership, ethics, and analysis. For 17 years, he led CIA's front-burner components, specializing in threats to US security and developing expertise in today's most pressing security issues. In the late 1990s, he led CIA's Office of Near Eastern, South Asian, and African Analysis, providing key policy support during multiple crises in the Middle East. After the 9/11 attacks, he established and led CIA's new Office of Terrorism Analysis and then became Deputy Director of the Counter Terrorism Center. In 2004 he became Director of CIA's Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation, and Arms Control Center, analyzing the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction and emerging military technologies. His service also includes work as part of the White House staff, when he was Director of Intelligence Programs on the National Security Council, as well as eight years of active duty in the US Navy.