Black Swan, The: Impact Of The Highly Improbable, The

Description: What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', 'The Black Swan' shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty. Review: Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling -- Stephen J. Dubner, Author Of Freakonomics An idiosyncratically brilliant new book -- Niall Ferguson Sunday Telegraph A fascinating study of how we are regularly taken for suckers by the unexpected -- Larry Elliot Guardian Like the conversation of a raconteur ... hugely enjoyable - compelling -- John Kay Financial Times Confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot -- John Cornwell Sunday Times In the tradition of The Wisdom of Crowds and The Tipping Point Time Author Biography: Nassim Nicholas Taleb spends most of his time as a flaneur, meditating in cafes across the planet. A former trader, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University's Polytechnic Institute. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in thirty-one languages.